Thursday, December 23, 2010

The Lebanese Solution Train

By Zuheir Kseibati
This commentary was published in al-Hayat on 23/12/2010

There is no exaggeration at the level of the optimism which prevailed following the birth of the new Iraqi government after long months of Iraqi and regional negotiations and discussions. This is in view of the fact that this birth was deemed to be an indicator for the likely extension of the truce in Lebanon, while awaiting a comprehensive agreement sponsored by the Saudi-Syrian umbrella to overcome the repercussions of the international tribunal’s indictment.

And while the race between the tribunal’s decision that will address accusations to those implicated in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and the comprehensive settlement which will enable Lebanon to avoid strife was still ongoing, the position of the Guide of the Islamic Republic in Iran, Ali Khamenei, did not come as a surprise, except at the level of its timing.

True, the fact that he considered that any sentence issued by the tribunal is “null” falls in the context of a previous campaign launched by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against the international tribunal and its “politicization.” However, what is also true is that Ahmadinejad himself announced once that it was a “Lebanese domestic affair.”

At a time when Khamenei’s campaign breached the truce among the Lebanese sides, consequently causing division among them just as they are divided over all the major issues, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was quickly able to contain this. Hence, this is yet another indicator for the chances of success of the Saudi-Syrian consultations and the ideas that are still kept secret. And while some have detected a green light from the Guide to Hezbollah to stage escalation, the team that focused on his call to confront “the conspiracy” with “reason and wisdom” was not mistaken in detecting an underlying call not to surpass the language of dialogue.

For their part, those who are optimistic about the chances of a solution in Lebanon perceive significant signs in the announcement made by the Iranian Foreign Ministry following the ousting of Manouchehr Mottaki. Indeed, the Foreign Ministry announced an intention to give the relations with Saudi Arabia and Turkey priority in Tehran’s foreign policy, as well as a “silent” momentum in support of the Saudi-Syrian umbrella in Lebanon to appease Hezbollah’s concerns over its fate in the post-indictment phase. Some even went as far as differentiating – while coming up with a vision for the possible exits – between the talk about Hezbollah’s arms and the talk about the resistance’s arms in the unknown ideas featured in the solution, in a way that places these arms in the context of the basket of understanding – alongside the consecration and completion of the implementation of the Taif Accord and the activation of the governmental work without an obstructing third. This would be seen, provided that the decision of the tribunal does not pose a direct threat on Hezbollah’s command, even if it were to affect elements in it. Some also differentiated between the arms to confront Israel and the arms that are no longer acceptable on the domestic arena, considering they are obstructing the work of the constitutional institutions and the parliamentary system one way or the other, and are representing the other side of the coin of the obstructing third.

All of the latter ideas are mere assumptions, but what restored calm following Khamenei’s campaign was the talk of Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc leader Deputy Muhammad Raad (As-Safir newspaper) about “certain concessions” required to reach solutions, as well as about “maintaining and protecting the resistance against the Israeli occupation.” This is probably the first time that Hezbollah approaches the concessions issue in such a clear way, thus constituting yet another advantage in favor of the Saudi-Syrian umbrella, which has successfully passed the test of protecting the solution project from the Lebanese disputes.

Whether or not the link that was established between Khamenei’s position toward the tribunal and Tehran’s project or vision for what it wants from America in the next round of talks over the nuclear file in Istanbul – in the context of American-Iranian understandings over the regional files – is right on the mark, it is clear that the efforts to round the corners of the solution in Lebanon are advancing with the retreat of the language of threats. Therefore, everyone is getting ready for the announcement of the agreement, while some are showing concern over their roles under the cover of their eager defense of the rights of the sects.

As for the daily disputes, they do not raise any fears over the New Year’s calm, even if Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri were to escalate the tone against March 14 because he “will not kneel down.” General Aoun himself reassured the Lebanese that their country was not “without control,” while in order to break the routine during the wait for the solution, the General thought it would be fine to launch a campaign here against the “gutter Cabinet,” and another masked one there against Patriarch Sfeir who exercises politics “as a hobby.”

Between the concerns of seeing “strife” and the fear over the fate of justice and the country, it is clear that some have calculations of another kind and fears of losing their positions if the solution train were to pass them by.

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